"....our SP markets have a long shot bias."

quote from osulldj.

I have touched on this topic previously - studies throughout the world confirm the efficiency of the SP market as a predictor of horse races. Long shots are over bet in every country except Hong Kong.

Consequently, to break even on horses starting at say 5/4 the punter needs only to obtain 6/4. BUT as the SP gets longer the more difficult it becomes to obtain the break even odds BECAUSE of the aforementioned long shot bias. Hence you need 80/1 about a horse with a SP of 40/1.

Since top fluctuation is readily available from various bookmakers one might argue that the punter should confine his betting activity to the more fertile (and profitable)ground where runners start at the shorter odds.

The formula of top fluctuation PLUS the SP market efficiency will yield results far more sympathetic to the punters wallet than vain attempts to snare longer priced winners that rarely (disproportionately) salute.

Or so the theory goes.