Hi 2 bets,

The quote you should have been concentrating on was this one....
Crash wrote:
"The punter who can consistently recognize a false favorite and take the overs on offer in those races will though". [make money].

I had one system that showed an amazing 42% POT over 2 1/2 yrs. and I thought I had finally hit the jackpot. It was logical, had the right filters and no-one else had ever thought of it and I never told a soul. My bets per selection started at $10 and where up to $300 and I was still winning [I was rolling in it]. Then it went belly up after a sustained run of outs that had me gob-smacked. I still watch it but it has never recovered. It was all shear ************ chance. Tilt.

Yes, I know a few punters who play the small percentages with large sums of capital behind them with what possibly could be described as a mechanical system, but a lot of bets are involved and they have mathematical brains way beyond the average ability and a very in-depth knowledge of racing, percentages [odds] and the laws of probability. That isn't us though :-)

I'm not anti-system [I have a couple of hundred I've tried, many my own] and I'm following a couple now with small change [you never know], but my real money follows reason nowadays. It just makes me a bit sad to see so many hopefuls looking for golden gooses and wasting years ignoring where the winning money really is: VALUE and spending their time doing everything but leaning how to truly spot it and never betting on anything else. Consistent edge is everything and the only way to win at this caper. It's simple maths, you must have better odds than the house or the house wins in the long run. That's not 'cold water', it's an opportunity.

If you want to know how to spot false favorites, he's a hint: Have look at some of the winners at Sydney last Saturday and note them down to see if they run favorite next start. Melb. too. Money for nothing.