Quote:
Consequently, to break even on horses starting at say 5/4 the punter needs only to obtain 6/4. BUT as the SP gets longer the more difficult it becomes to obtain the break even odds BECAUSE of the aforementioned long shot bias. Hence you need 80/1 about a horse with a SP of 40/1.
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I cannot agree again.
Does this mean if I can obtain 6/4 somewhere about a 5/4 SP chance I'll come out ahead?
I could easily obtain that price shopping around to the death knock - I can assure you I would not come out ahead.
If I rate a horse at 10/1 I would only need 20/1 to be a double overlay - an SP of 40/1 is a gift, and all I need is one 80/1 shot to win for the year (rated 10/1 by me) and I can holiday for the rest of the time.
But it doesn't work that easily.
It's not what odds you can get over SP price, it's what odds you can get over the correct price.
While what osulldj says rings true to a certain extent about SP being a good guide - it is not accurate.
If it were, nobody would be getting overlays betting SP - and I know many that do.
It's not the number of 4/1 chances that win races - it's the number of 4/1 runners to race winners ratio you have to consider, otherwise the whole thing goes pearshaped.
[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-12-05 22:38 ]