24th August 2005, 10:13 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,441
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
Chrome,
Those figures regarding track conditions are a bit of mischief, though I'm not doubting they are correct.
What happens to field sizes on rain effected tracks? They go down [and so do the odds by the way]. The more rain affected ground, the more scratchings. The smaller the field size the more favorites win regardless of conditions.
Your stats. support a deceptive conclusion only, they certainly don't disprove that it is easier to win on good and dead tracks.
There is a mathematics professor in the USA who at the start of every year 'proves' to his new students that 2+2=3.99 !!!
You are comparing apples and oranges using smoke and mirrors and stats. are a great way to do it [just ask any politician] :-)
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Hi Crash,
Agreed about the field sizes, however, more favourites win on Heavy tracks than Dead or Slow. This means that the secondary benefit is strike rate and return.
Let me run less than 10 runners and see how we go....
FAST - 36.70%
GOOD - 36.31%
DEAD - 33.84%
SLOW - 35.26%
HEAVY - 34.64%
Dead still being the poor cousin.
There still is no great dip in the Heavy stats to suggest to not bet.
It's the shifting track condition which is the bugbear. Trainers will often run horses to see how they go on Dead/Slow, but would definitely scratch on a Heavy track, which is bourne out by the number of scratchings. |