I am not disputing the win ratios of every particular SP price, I am merely trying to point out that the value lies where the market is wrong according to your price assessment.
I could give hundreds of examples of horses I rated second or third favourite which won at odds of 10/1 etc.
Therefore according to my ratings, the SP was in fact wrong.
If only 10% of say 6/1 shots win (again hypothetical here). You could conclude that to break square if the market is right, that 14.28% of 6/1 shots should win.
Therefore 4.28% of the time the market is wrong.
I just look at it from a different angle.

Examples:

Fearless Sophie - rated favourite by me - won $6.90
(was second in the market).

Sandbelt - rated 3rd fave - won $9.70
(was sixth in the market).

Raja Lane - rated second fave - won $6.00
(was fourth pick in the market).

Just some examples of how I believed the market was wrong and it paid off.

Anyhow I agree it's a great topic sparking healthy debate.
Well done amateur.
:wink: