Morning Guitar Jim. We are kind of going round in circles here. The question is: how do the bookies arrive at the odds BEFORE they load them up.We punters arrive at our "prices" through a process which may be the same or similar or radically different to the bookies and it is very possible we COULD be better. Everything you said is correct for mechanical devices etc (ieRoulette/Keno/Craps etc etc) as the "edge" is a direct calculation plus "house advantage". Any person with even the most basic maths ability could estimate that a dice has six faces and each has 1 chance in six of coming (ie5-1). Put the dice up at 4-1 per face and the dice owner couldn't lose long term ( as you've made a "correct" book of 120%). Then go back to Dolus' example in his most recent post.Dolus' dice was set to about 160% but he was too smart to take any of the unders (#1-4) nor the "correct" odds (#5) though plenty of others DID. He only took "overs", on #6. This can only work for BOTH sides (ie setting a CERTAIN book of "unders" or recognising a CERTAIN over) if the CERTAIN, correct, underlying odds are known.
It would be pointless a bagman putting Sunline at 20-1 plus 25% and some hopeless maiden at evens plus 25%, then announcing his book was 125%!! The bookie STILL has to get the underlying (set to 100%) odds right. Any ideas how they do THIS better than punters??
This also shows the flaw in saying punters MUST bet favs. If the fav (ie the one the bookies put as the shortest priced) is obviously unders, only a small percentage would bet it. This will definitely wipe a bookie out (over time) as the rest of the money goes elsewhere in the race. Offer Sunline at 20s and NO-ONE will bet on the so-called fav just because it's evens. The bookies odds have to be close to reality BUT better (for them) than reality too. How to arrive at THIS reality Jim?? Cheers