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Old 10th December 2002, 02:16 PM
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To Dowong:I would like to pass comment on your stats about favs coming first most of the time,2nd favs coming second,and 3rd favs coming third.Not so!!It has been statistically proven over many years that favs only win about 30%of all races,so if you equate that correctly they only win 30 races out of every 100 races run,so in actual fact,they lose most of the time!!If you follow the method you suggested,you will go broke!You also suggest operating in big fields,but in big fields the fav is often very short,and thus poor value.I personally won't bet in big fields at all,because of outrageous bookmaker's percentages,thus eliminating any value no matter which horse you back.more chance of interference,etc.etc.I would like to suggest an alternative method,also mechanical,using Saturday morning prepost markets.Rule 1.Take the 2nd,3rd and 4th horses (prepost)to win.Rule 2.Take the 2nd,3rd,4th and 5th horses(prepost)to come second.Rule three.Take the field to come third.My line of thought here is that statistically,2nd,3rd and 4th in the market between them colectively win roughly 50% of races,which dramatically improves your chances as against relying on the fav alone,which only wins about 30%.Also too many other punters stand the fav out,especially in small fields,so any chance of getting a good result is gone.I would suggest only operate on the better class races in Sydney and Melbourne,Saturdays only.Main race of the day,perhaps the first leg of the daily double?Field size maximum of 16.At a $1 unit,maximum cost with 16 runners $135,of course halve that if you want to bet in half units.I intend to begin operating this system starting this Saturday(14th Dec).I will keep you all posted as to results and dividends,if any!!!Just a passing thought,if there are more than one runner on the 2nd,3rd or 4th line,I will bypass that race and maybe choose another,depending on the class of race available.If there is anyone with the resources and the knowhow to research past results of this,would be greatly appreciated.I would also welcome any feedback.thoughts and ideas regarding the principles of this method.Looks good to me on paper,but the proof will come when my hard goes on!!Sorry this post is so long,cheers and good punting,and a very happy and prosperous Christmas and New Year to all.Cheers,Angel416.
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