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Old 11th December 2002, 09:36 AM
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Dowong,I agree that your percentages wil be better by leaving the fav out,but I still don't like the idea of relying on one horse to fill a specified position.I think you will find your runs of outs will be frustating,i.e.what if your 2nd fav comes 3rd,and the 3rd fav comes 2nd?I like the idea of multiples much better because it increases the chances of hitting the trifecta more often,even though the outlay is greater.I am going to monitor the results on paper before I use this method.It may well be more cost effective to take 2nd 3rd 4th fav/2nd,3rd,4th,5th/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th.8th.Cost only$54 at $1 unit as against $135 in a field of 16 using the other method.There won't often be fields of 16 anyway,average maybe 12/14.This method may suffer long runs of outs too,but my logic here is Value Value Value!That is my reason in leaving the fav out.I don't intend to operate this method on a completely mechanical basis.I am still going to study the form.If my own assessments give the fav a good winning chance,or an excellent place chance in a certain race,I will bypass that race.I think it's important you find the right races with this method,where you think the fav is a risk but the public don't.Let me know how your method goes regards,
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