Thread: W of P%
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Old 5th September 2005, 12:09 PM
Dale Dale is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
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(1)Only target races where the whole field has had 8+ career starts.
Now work out a percentage on how many times the horse has finished in the first 5 positions to career starts & convert this to a percentage.


Mark Reids site has a figure that has this info but one has to input the horses name to get it , can be very tedious.
He calls them F5`s.

(2)Another is to calculate the combined career percentage of 1sts & 2nds only.
(ignore career 3rds)


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Bhagwan your idea(1) has some merit,one could change Win of Place % to Win of Prizemoney %,ie how many times has it won compared to being placed in top 5,it could be a much more consistent way of rating horses which have that knack of sticking their heads out at the line,i was mucking around with W of P % in the first place trying to systematicly pick horses that have a habit of going on to win when they are in the finish.

(2) I'm not as fussed on this idea,some horses are habitual 2nd place getters,it all goes back to horse pack mentality and weaker animals not challenging the leader of the pack.

I'm not as big a fan of this approach as i once was but i think it has plenty going for it and if used in combination with a couple of other aspects could excell but thesedays i find career starts a better way to work out that horse that just has that something extra,i guess that goes back to horse pack mentality aswell with the younger stronger fitter brumby stepping up to challenge the old worn out pack leader for leadership rights.
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