Gday tarbs.
I dunno if you are throwing a dart my way, but if ya are... u are entitled to your opinion...
I will tell you the way that I bet... and it is successful more often than not. profit wise.. ( have a look at the trainer thread as just one example).. Overall I am winning on the punt...In races where I bet, I have rated all the runners... on this forum I express the rating as just that, a rating number... (that was because peole who used them found a number a better tool than a price, plus it is not as time consuming) how i bet them is I convert that number to an expected dividend.. and bet the overs on horses I price at under 11$ (10/1)... That may mean that I am backing a few runners in a race.. I take the odd exotic bet, but not a great deal.. I am of the view that backing 1 runner a race, while your return on a win will obvioulsy be greater (POT wise on each individual race) you need to have apretty good SR to be a winner or have very very few bets... and after all the name of the game is to actually bet on the runners and make a bit of cash. not just watch em run around and wish you had had the balls to back that winner in the last at 70$ that u had rated at 6$... If you wanna know about that last horse rated at 6 bucks that won at 70's email me off list and I will direct you to where that was posted yesterday, 3 days in advance... To me that is how you make your money.. I didnt yahoo about that runner because I didnt post it here..
When I post my ratings, I expect the winner to be in the posted horses at about 70% of the time.. over the years the average is about 74%
I do not yahoo on runners that I have not posted before the races.. I think that is poor form.. I do not offer excuses if my horses get rolled, (u know the line, we track, poor ride, tho every now and then I will say ************ Stewards lol) there is always another race, I do not say, Oh i though that would win but posted 5 others in error, that is arrant nonsense. What I will do sometimes when I have time is say what I think is value... even if i have something rated on top I will attempt to steer people away based on the horse being unders... so what if it wins.. in the long term if you continually back horses that are unders you will lose
I agree with you about the Jesus Christ like saviour quality of the tris and ex's, that is posted on this forum from time to time.. I find about 50% quins and ex's from my top 5 and about 25 - 30% tris.. I havent done the maths, but I dont think even the quinellas betting 5 horses in box will over the long term bring a profit... If I was to bet quinellas I would box the top 4 for whatever you can afford (6$ a unit).. with the tris forget I reckon.... I could be wrong tho
As for a tip for your bucks party at Viccy Park... my tip is RUN YA SILLY MAN
