HI Fryingpan,

You said:

"eg When the market selects two at $4 but they are priced on the tote just before the race at $7, what is happening there?"

I years gone by, tote crushers used to be quite common. Recognising that the SP market is the most accurate predictor of chances, they would wait until the last minute of betting and then back all the significant overs on the tote. However as happens with all "simple" strategies like this they don't last. These days, even if your selection is big overs on the tote, the last fluctuation, which often takes place after they jump, sees the horse backed into equal to or less than its SP. Of course there are isolted instances we could all sight where we have gained tote overs, but across a large number of races the two markets are similar. If anyhting the tote offers poorer value for shorter priced runners and better value for the long priced ones.

In outperforming the market, I always look for one or more key horses. Those key horses are either runners I believe the market has significantly underassessed, or on many occassions, runners the market has significantly overassessed.

If you have it assessed pretty much the same as the market then you are best off to leave the race alone. Sure your ratings might say the horse is $4 and the market has it at $4.50, but we know upfront that the market offers very poor value across all races and if you have this race generally assessed the same as the market, do you really think $4.50 against your $4 is value?