all the current literature suggests we should be looking for "overlays" i.e. a horse showing Bookmaker odds greater than our own assessed odds.
In this age of internet form everyone has access to form history. The question may be not "can I may make an overlay" but "can I make a profit on this race"?
Last saturday's Sandown meeting was a "Wake-up" call to me - I rated 7 races and could only find ONE race were I could "Dutch-book" three horses to make a profit.
I think this may be the the most important lesson - If you can't BY YOUR OWN ASSESSMENTS make a profit on this race - DON'T Bet.
One a more positive note, I have "stolen" the ideas from forum members about sectional times and the "pace" of races to create a different set of ratings.
The first weeks are too god to be true - time will well!!