ABSOLUTELY Brave! The best example I can think of is the great CIGAR. I backed him for what seemed an eternity on the turf as he was regally bred for it and trained by turf master Bill Mott. Well, he didn't do anything for about 10 races until they finally tried him on dirt and he didn't lose for 16 straight races!!!

Of course you know when I jumped off him. LOL

I don't use breeding as an exclusive way of picking a horse by any means either, but I do think it can provide an accurate assesment of the horse's ability and distance limitations when you don't have much to go on like 1st timers. And there has to be some validity that certain sires produce winners more often than others and under certain conditions. I have been using sires more and more for turf races and 2yo and they do seem to replicate their papa's alot. When I first started on Australia I didn't know many of the trainers or jocks so I had to make some connection to the horse. I still go through the program and circle my sire du jour and any that I like.