Hi "gridiron" fans


Glad to see a thread started on the NFL. Those of you who read the tennis threads will recall that my situations were based on NFL. Unfortunatly my situations usually pick low priced favs in tennis and thus not suitable for the users of this forum. Pity though as they do produce a profit.

I buy in my NFL tips and get the situations from a book written by one of the top USA tipsters. I have had 4 straight seasons of profits following him. It would be unethical to give his tips here but I would like to contribute to the forum. I bet on totals and the point spread and the following comments refer to point spread betting.

Remember that NFL with its salary cap is a "contrarion" sport to bet on. That is if Detroit beat Green Bay by 7 this week and ST Louis beat SF by 7, the worse thing you can do is assume if Detroit were meeting SF in the following week that Detroit would be a great bet on the spread. NFL doesn't seem to work that way. The teams are pretty even with some exceptions as noted by other forum contributors. Also, a study was done which indicates that 80% of all NFL games are decided by turnovers. The same study also indicated that it is almost impossible to predict turnovers.

It is my opinion as others that "defense" is the key component of finding the Super Bowl winner. Big offenses such as KC and Phily look good, but they seldom get their names on the trophy. I wait until the 4th or 5th round and look at the defensive stats and see if there is value in the best defensive sides.

For week1 I like
DETROIT -3 bt Green Bay
Baltimore +3 bt Phil Eagles

My teams are Green Bay and Buffalo and also like to see Oakland and the 49'ers do well.

Good punting for the season

Karla