Hi Punter 57, yes I largely agree withg you re pre post odds in newspapers. Alternatively, using the win pool of the tab of the home state at the 10k win pool mark makes much more sense to me. It is the actual price on offer, not something picked out of the sky by a person (s) or computer ratings. True, I used to use the Australian newspaper pre post prices back in the pre internet days..and they were ok because there wasnt anything better. Today it is a far different story.

Yesterday, using the QLd tab top three rated horses and the Syd tab win pool, there was just the one selection, using my Saturday plans, at Canterbury in an open company race for 4yr plus....See Me Smile...opened at around $10.00 and won at about same price, although better fixed odds were available.

At the risk of being judged a smartarse here, I'm going to use this selection to illustrate some points:

1. it won paying more than $9 (not $7 or less)

2. It was a last start winner..a factor which some people here think means no particular advantage...

3. it was a $10 last start winner, decrying the myth that last start winners go out too short....

Surely, this illustrates, rather well, that there is still good value to be had out there..esp when one also considers this:
The horse was not only in the top three rated selections as on QLD Tab., it was also in the top three or 4 Ian Craig selections..hardly a longshot chance one would think....


See me Smile (tab#5) jumped from 3 barrier, (nothing wrong with barrier draw either) hit the front and led all the way ...nice ride by J Ford... it was running around at a price that owners, trainers and bookmakers can all benefit from...but not the fave punter who has done his nuts yet again...

Did I back See me Smile? not that it really matters...but yes I did..x2 ...because it was a QLSW..and the race was of reasonable quality for a non saturday event. I also backed Texarcana, even though it was not really a qualifier..being in a restricted 3yr event of dubious betting quality..but at 26.00 I thought it worth a tickle... It certainly wasnt the worst runner and gave me a run for my money.....Midweek is play time for me anyway...Saturdays are my bread and butter..

I just dont buy the idea that value has gone out of punting..or that I will go broke backing longer priced horses...it simply makes no sense to me.. .I believe I will go broke backing faves and the real shorties tho.....it takes too much to turn the losses around whereas a good value horse quickly puts one back on top in one fell swoop...Whilever punters try and follow "smart money" (a likely oxymoron if ever there was one), late mail and media tips, I have a very reasonable chance of turning a profit. I amnot suggesting that anyone punt like me...it takes discipline to ride the outs and belive me, there are big outs.but I dont bet day to day, week to week, or month to month...and most bookies are the same...they dontb try to get out on the last race...there is no last race...until we stop punting.