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Old 10th September 2005, 02:40 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 759
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"nd just last week when i needed that 1 point which i could of gotten with another book maker in the knights dragons game."

Thefan, whether that point is worth much depends on the line you take, whether it's a key number and if it's an odd number. Nearly all odd numbers are worthless in NRL. Eg, it doesn't matter whether you have +4.5 or +5.5. Games very rarely end on 5. On the other hand, having +6.5 is MUCH better than+5.5. since it covers the 6. The key numbers in NRL are pretty much every even number up until 14 (lol), and the 1 and 7. Key numbers aren't really worth that much in NRL as compared to NFL, it's just that non key numbers are worth nothing at all.

"I always, repeat, always take the points over the divvie - always."

This might save you from some frustrating losses/draws, but it's not the best way to bet. You have to find out what a point is worth, and then compare it to the better price you could get, and then choose whichever one has the larger edge.

"Do take into account youve done the research youself rather than taking tips off people on forums and making a bet. I believe its your money,and you only have yourself to blame if the tips go wrong"

In general yeh. Don't just follow someone posting on a forum. You can do so if you have done the research and decide it's worth the risk, but without something like longterm&100% legit records to analyze, it's best to stay clear.

Eg if someone had hit 55% (against the spread) over a few hundred picks and you KNEW they had achieved this, then there's a 90% chance that they are at least breakeven vs -110 ($1.91).

"Always withdraw winnings...keep your bank at a set amount."

I totally disagree, and know alot of other people would too. You are depriving yourself of alot of profit. If you manage your bankroll/risk well then there is NO reason to withdraw money. By reinvesting winnings, you experience the 9th wonder of the world- compound interest

"Would a ROI of 20% (current ROI for ATP betting: see ATP Tennis Thread) be sufficient in order to make a decent amount of cash from punting on the side?"

You make make plenty off MUCH less.

"i started betting recently starting with a set bank and going 5 or 10% as a stake,"

I wouldn't go above 5%. I know you do it for fun etc so you probally don't want to be betting 2%, but you have to be hitting over 57% to be betting 10% of your bankroll. Aussie markets are softer than US markets (unless you bet at the TAB lol), but it's still very hard to do better than 55%.
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