Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Hi Sportz,
No, the horse doesn't know, but the bookie knows the value of the longterm stats and sets a price in his advantage. It's about getting value, not picking winners.
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C.P.
This always intrigues me, getting value and not picking winners.
What IS value, WHO determines the value.
So you look at a race you have a selection and you don't think it's value so you don't back it and it bolts in. This happens on 6 of your selections for the day.
You have another 6 selections on the day and they are all twice the odds you expect so you bet them BECAUSE THEY ARE VALUE and they all lose.
So you had 12 selections for the day, the value ones lose and the non value ones win.
The way I see it you had 12 picks for the day and 6 won and unless the 6 winners were all in the red you would have turned a profit on the day.
I know this value thing goes back to the Don Scott days, but I don't think the like of him will ever be seen again.
The other thing that was a looong time ago and things are a 1000% different today.
I'm not trying to be a smartie, just curious.
I repeat What IS value, WHO determines the value.
I look to turn a profit daily, if I achieve that I am a happy camper.
I might get a $2.5 place and the nag was $10 win, now that is BAD value for the place,
if it runs a hole I'm happy.
What I'm trying to say is I look at 6 races can't see anything, the 7th race comes up and something catches my eye and I keep watching and to me looks a good chance to run a hole. I start chasing odds, and I know to get VALUE it MUST be better than $3.25, the best I can get tabs or books is $2.5 so I leave the race, it runs a hole I miss out, when I could have been finished for the day.
Better than $3.25 would be a luxury but sadly it doesn't happen very often.
I agree when chasing odds sometimes I curse and splutter at what is offered, but there is not much I can do about it.
Cheers