Where are you watching them shorten? Books or tote?

My personal opinion is that you should lay every shortener. I don't know where or how bookies come up with their prices, but they are generally pretty close to the mark.

I have sat here and seen many horses sit at about $6 on the books yet is paying $15 on the tote. Quite often I will be swearing at the tight bookie for being so miseable with his odds, until I watch the race and realise that the horse was never going to lose.

The thing with shorteners, is that everybody remembers the real shorteners that win. I remember a thread that copped a bit of flack a few months ago. It was Chucks lay of the day. It was backed in from $10 to about $3.80, and got up. Now on that occassion, the money was right. But for every time the money is right, there is multiple times that it is wrong.

I often sit here and watch a horse open at $2-3 favourites, and drift. I watch the price on BF and simply nobody wants it. Ends up you can get nearly $10 for this horse. Without providing statistics, it would be my bet that these drifters win more often than the shorteners.

I would personally prefer to back a horse that opened at $3 and I got $10 for, than back something for $3 that opened at $10.

Just an opinion though, won't provide any stats to support this....
Happy punting...