If she did run in the Caulfield Cup and happened to win, the penalty she'd get would effectively wipe her out of the Melbourne Cup anyway.

So, I think they'll go this way:
Caulfield Cup: NO
Cox Plate: YES
Melbourne Cup: MAYBE

Put it this way, in the latest odds, she's $26 for the Caulfield Cup. If she was going to run, she'd be $6!!!.