G'day. Not 100% sure about the low classes Baggy, but since many, many nags in these classes are HOPELESS and soon to be added to my Border Collie's daily diet, I think this could be fertile ground. Possibly a straight forward SR or prizemoney elimination rule would get rid of the dirt surrounding the nuggets, or something like that.
Dale. Lower weighted horses DO tend to be the source of plenty of upsets, especially once you get away from the shorter sprints (ie a flashing runaway roughie can just make it 1100 or 1200 before dying under 60kgs, but not 3200m!!!). I also reckon you've got to look at horses which are "failing" but then being moved up in class, and in particular, horses NOT being raised in distance as well.
An example was Cozarvy on 28 June 2003. This horse had been easily "done" twice in a row over 1350 (Class 4s) at Strathalbin and was in town for a 0MW and still at 1310. I was at Cheltenham that day and wondering WHY Brian Cozamanis was doing this and WHY Clare Lindop was riding it again, as she had in the two previous losses. Incidentally Dale, Cozamanis has a Pt Lincoln stable, which puts his horses firmly on the radar when they "travel" (as you know!!!), apart from being a "mechanical longshot (1457) to boot. Anyway, it made them look like fools at 60s!! Off the bottom weight, of course. Hmmmmm. Bye for now.
PS. The only other "mechanical" in that race was SECOND. Quinella over $400 and Tri at $17000. Though I NEVER play exotics, that day I was cursing and sorely tempted!!