Hey all,
Not a bad day at Doomben tomorrow, with some promising types going around. Lets just hope we can find a winner or two
Race 1 - Don't mind Common Knowledge here, at each way value. Can sit on pace, which may suit given that a few of the good chances are get-back types. Stood Up is very close to a win, but things won't be easy from the bad gate and with 57.5kgs. He has been beaten by a couple of pretty good ones lately though....and this isn't strong. Watson Road has won his last 2, and Bailey knows how to place his horses to suit. This may be a touch ambitious at this stage though.
Race 2 - Same old crew are back again. Who wins tomorrow? *Shrugs*. Not a whole lot of speed, so maybe if Rock Cafe is ridden forward then he has a show. Nothing wrong with Tackman's 2 wins, the apprentice worries me though (as they always do). Special Langfuhr was a good win last start after jumping up in distance and might be able to run a race at odds with a light weight. Never been a fan of these stayers races, so they'll be going around without mine.
Race 3 - Beamer looks to be the speed, and if he runs up to his recent form i'd say he's close to the winner. Carrying 55kgs, after the win in open company at the Coast last time (sitting deep too), he's in awfully well against this lot. Malta has an ordinary gate and will get back, so there are a few things against him tomorrow, but he's been in OK form. Prince of Ashes won well last time at Caloundra and from the 2 gate will get a nice run, just depends on whether theres enough speed on for them to catch Beamer.
Race 4 - Tough race. A few i could've chosen here, but i've settled on Racetrack. Hasn't really been placed to suit recently, but back to his own age, with the good draw and the weight concession i think he can put some pressure on them at the end. Absolom will most likely press forward from the wide alley, and give some cheek at big odds. Welcome Site made up some ground late last time in superior company and back to the 3yo's here, could improve with speed on. Lots of other chances here though.
Race 5 - Birdlady won well at Caloundra last time, but this is a step up in grade. Having said that though, she has been to town before as a younger horse and performed well. I think she can improve and will take some catching from the good draw. Past Tense has run into Black Ink, Star Of Canada and Spur Me On in his last 3 and will appreciate the 'easier' grade here. Will be on pace too. Rafso will probably be scratched again, but i'll include him just in case, as a chance at odds.
Race 6 - Quality race. I think Public Opinion gets his chance to return to some of his better 2yo form here. With no weight (carry 10kgs less than his run last time) and a good alley, he'll jump on the speed and could prove very hard to stop. Winbreaker has some good Sydney form to his name and can run a race fresh. Panzer has been in great form of late and theres no reason to doubt him tomorrow, especially from the 1 gate. The 1200m should suit him better than the 1000m too. I just think that Doomben won't suit a couple of the others (Poetic Papal and Power Hunt)...which is why i've left them out of calculations.
Race 7 - Another good race. Star Shiraz has shown her affinity for Eagle Farm but Doomben is another matter. And with 59kgs, i'm prepared to look elsewhere. Hialeah Star is the way i've gone. She can cruise along at good speed, and ran a big race last time out. The Doomben course seems to be her caper, so i think she'll give a good sight for backers. Obviously Star Shiraz has that touch of class and it would not surprise me to see her win again, just don't like the Doomben factor. Shanambah is a chance with the light weight too, after a nice win in 3yo company last time - she must have improved on that run for Ryan to have her nom'ed here.
Race 8 - Final event is a really nice race, with some promising types engaged. Tough to go past Star of Canada, will be short enough though. Good win at Doomben in hot time, and the form has been proven with Black Ink romping in at Eagle Farm the other day. The 1350 is an unknown, but i can't see too much established speed which will help him. Big win by Stepping last time, gave nothing else a chance with the big run down the outside. Has been promising to do that for a while, this is a step up in grade though. General Sam is fitter now and can run well from the 1 alley, i find it somewhat difficult to get him on his day though. I've had enough of Colin's Party, so i've left him out completely. Which means he'll win by 5 tomorrow.
Best is Beamer with a good eachway chance to Public Opinion. Special Langfuhr might be an OK throw-away chance in the raffle of the day too.
Good luck with whatever you bet on...
Sven