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Old 28th September 2005, 07:53 AM
w924 w924 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 256
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Hi Crash.

How about going the other way, and consider a horse that has been tipped to win by only one tipster and is not mentioned at all by any other tipster?

You are probably going to obtain long odds about a horse on which the tipster may have inside info. (I used to use the Australian newspaper poll for this on Saturdays.)

Consensus doesnt always mean success..in fact I get worried when my selections come up in other peoples selection methods as well. I much prefer it when I have a "one out" selection. Time after time, on this forum, we see horses that most people agree upon as a horse that will salute, and yet it doesnt happen...

Recently, I have been monitoring the Qtab ratings alongside the techforn ratings. One will often have a selection win that the other didnt, while the co-inciding selections have a rather ordinary strike rate thus far. It is getting to the point whereby, I may well end up using this as a filter..i.e. if both ratings services come up with the same selection, (after I have run my methods through them), I may end up eliminating the horse from consideration....

How is that for contary thinking?

As an aside, to date, every selection of yours in your "No Brainer "method that has also come up in my selection methods, has failed to win. (despite your very high strike rate of winners). It's early days of course..but an example whereby co-inciders, or consensus horses dont necessarily have a stronger chance of winning over a "one out" horse
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