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Originally Posted by w924
My racing system should be any collection of data that once analysed gives an indication of a horse which represents a better chance of winning a race than the other horses in the same race.
That is one way of doing it but not the only way, nor does it necessarily achieve your true objective...I guess it depends upon your wish to produce a profit from (a) backing the selections, or (b) selling the selection method..
For instance, the objective of a racing system, (for many people) is to make an easy and consistent profit over time. This does not have to mean selecting the horse that has a greater chance of beating its rivals in any given race... For example, it may mean selecting the horse (or horses) that, over time, win often enough, at a sufficient price, to produce a consistent long term profit..
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Well I never thought about selling a method, isn't that like writing a book on how to make a million, hoping to sell enough copies to actually make the million? No, I am far more practical than that, I want to build a system, that will give me true financial independence, whilst at the same time letting me do something I have loved all my life and 'PAID' to participate in.
I accept your definition of making a profit over time, but raise the question of how you can possibly put a price on the years it took you to amass the knowledge to even come close to making a 'real' system that makes a profit over time. What price do you factor in their and have you deducted that from your bottom line, and if so, perhaps you are no longer in profit. If you made a profit, was it a fluke, a convergence of positive elements, or just luck? If it worked in the first 5 years will it fall over in the next five years?
I doubt that many people ever have a static (Finished) system that yields long term profits. I suspect that a system would need constant tweaking and constant appraisal and modifying, to mimic the changing nature of the industry it is based on.
As the rules and trends change, so must the system makers, to me this is simple logic. I will never say my system is built, or finished, because I know that would be the start of the end. I would opt for a dynamic system that had the ability to change as conditions demanded it.
There are some factors that you just can't quantify, some factors that can't be anticipated nor converted to a numeral or string in a program. For example, take the effect of betting exchanges, television wars, government tax changes and so on. These things have a profound and long term effect on the industry, thus the industry actually changes intrinsically, therefore the system must also change by some degree to keep pace with the ever changing landscape of what we call the racing industry. Not to mention the menace of drugs in sport and people simply not trying to win. These are the great unknown intangibles, some you can try to adjust for and some you just have to accept will never go away.
I accept everyone's voice, for there is truly no right or wrong, its not about the math whatsoever, its not about the ability of the participants, its not even about the money, it is about the entire game, lock stock and barrel, or as they say in the classics, "the whole shooting match', or is that 'Box and Dice'?
My point is, a system is never finished...not really.
Tailwag