28th September 2005, 06:04 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Port Macquarie
Posts: 1,694
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sportz
XPT,
This is what I was referring to.
I'm certain that one of the main reasons behind the short price was that every man and his dog seemed to tip those horses today. Actually, that really should have been a good enough reason to leave them alone, as those over-tipped horses so often lose.
That's what I meant by a ridiculous price. I'm certain Stop The Traffic would have been at least $2.50 if it hadn't been so heavily tipped today. And likewise Fabiarna would have been $3.
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Gday Sportz,
thats the nature of the para mutuel markets... I am not sure about the tipping being the main cause , but I wont argue that..., I will say however that my priceline was 1.9$ STT... thats why I questioned your reasoning, because u are usually close enough to the mark... the weight of money from punters had STT at tomato sauce odds, and you are right, that is the signal to move on... As you know I dont take odds on.. even if they deserve to be odds on... they don't win often enough long term to make a profit.. I am sure someone wll either shoot that down or suppport it..
The last in mel, Fabiarna was a lil bit short but not by a whole lot, again it was no bet because of the short price
I think that these 2 favs going under make the case for setting a floor price for what punters will accept as fair risk... I think a min of $4 is a good starting point maybe even 5 or 6... What do others think? backing those shorties, when they fall over is a short cut to the poorhouse.. and they fall over often enough
Just my opinion |