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Old 30th September 2005, 08:17 PM
blocka blocka is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 23
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Carnegie,

I have done some analysis but can't (or at least without a bit more effort) do all the criterea:
I have done:

1) Only select horses with a winning percentage of 40% or higher the win and 60% or higher the place - Win % only

2) No two or three year old races or restricted class races. - See results breakdown, assume 3yo+ is OK

3) Only select horses that have finished within 4 lengths of the winner at their last start, provided they did not win. - OK

4) Only select horses with a proven first or second up record in similar quality races. - Not done

5) Only select horses that are proven at the track or distance (50% place at worst). - Not done

6) Never select a horse with an apprentice jockey on board unless they are claiming below the minimum (generally these horses fail rules 1 & 3 hence the reason for minimum weight and the claim) - Not done

7) Never select a horse that has drawn off the track. Stick to horses that have drawn barriers 1-7 (unless down the straight at Flemington or Vic Park). - OK except for the exceptions

8) Only bet if the odds for the win are greater than $3.50 - OK

9) In races where there are more than one that suffice the above rules no bet. - Not done

10) 25 units the win 25 units the place. - Can only do win results.


Results:
As above:
Wins





Starts





Places





S/R





Place S/R





Win Return





POT





29





192





81





15.10%





42.19%





196.75





2.47%







As above but including restricted races:
Wins





Starts





Places





S/R





Place S/R





Win Return





POT





47





289





120





16.26%





41.52%





296.75





2.68%







As above but including 2 and 3yo races and including restriced races.
Wins





Starts





Places





S/R





Place S/R





Win Return





POT





98





577





231





16.98%





40.03%





615.5





6.67%








Edit: Results for Syd/Melb metro from 1/1/2003...
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