Yeah Andy Beyer is an interesting guy, read a fair bit about him and read his books. I used to be a huge fan of time ratings. When I was younger I built up bases and standards and rated them on time and did the form and loved it.... and lost.

Andy himself came out to Australia with the intention of conquering the races here using time ratings. He tried, but lost badly and went home having done a serious amount of cash.

Times work in the States, but they don't work here. There are many reasons why this is the case, I don't have the time to outline it all here now but trust me, they don't work overall. In SOME cases, time can be a guide, but that's all. Two important exceptions are - early 2yo's (like blue diamond preludes for colts / fillies at Caulfield) and when assessing the ability of a maiden. If a maiden runs much faster time than other races over that trip (see Rewaaya recently), it could be a good horse, especially if it wins by many lengths. However, maidens who run a slow time may still be very good horses.

Here's an example of the unreliability of time:

July 29 this year, Preakness and Shovoluck both won maidens at Tamworth over 1000m. That's basically the shortest trip in Australia for maidens. Sprinters trip. Times, if anywhere to be reliable, should be reliable there. This day, with the same weight, Preakness ran 0.36 seconds faster than Shovoluck. You'd think, all being equal, that Preakness' run was better, on times it was 2 lengths better after all. On the expert-form ratings however, Shovoluck rated 95 and Preakness 93, which is roughly 1 length superior, with a slower time.

Next start, they raced against each other. Perfect time to test the theory. It was 1 week later, at Gunnedah over 1000m. They both had to carry 54.5 kilos. If you're a time fan, you'd expect Preakness to beat Shovoluck by 2 lengths. Let me tell you, I watched this race with GREAT INTEREST.

In the run, they both got their chance. Preakness box seated, 3rd on the fence, Shovoluck sat just on his outside. In the straight, the run came for Preakness and Shovoluck switched out to the middle to make his run. The result?

This is it, with the expert form ratings included:

finpos Horse Weight Margin rating
1 GAHELA BEAU 54 0.4 95
2 SHOVOLUCK 54.5 0.4 95
3 STRAWBERRY BAR 56 1.4 95
4 CABBAGE 51 1.6 91
5 PREAKNESS 54.5 1.9 93
6 MAGIC JAZZ BAND 54 2.7 91
7 BROAD SPECTRUM 56 3.7 91
8 ITSNOSECRET 54.5 5 88
9 DUE WEST 54 8.5 83
10 LITTLE RASCAL 55 10.3 81
11 SUNGARI 52 11.5 77
12 RONS RACQUET 54 16 71



I've done a heap of work on times, and here they just don't stack up. I know in the States they do and I wish they did here, because it'd make it so much easier, but they don't. What works is comparing horse against horse, weight against weight.

Cheers.