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Old 1st October 2005, 06:46 AM
w924 w924 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
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Great thread guys.

I sacked barrier draws, as a factor in my methods, a long time ago...A scan look over the tables that Blocka has kindly posted doesn't change my opinion one bit.

Look at the stats for barrier 2 in melb and one can see that its actually slightly worse than barrier 8 for ROI..on these stats in both venues Barrier 2 looks rather ordinary imo.

Obviously, barriers 5 and upwards often become the outside barrier in many fields, Those who follow Dale's "outsider" method posted on this forum are well aware that the outside barriers have their fair share of winners ..often at big odds..and as a punter, winning odds do matter.

It is a given that an outside barrier draw means that horse is going to cover more ground than many of its rivals, and may have to use early speed to get to the fence, or drop back to cross over..yet despite this they still get up,. When beaten into 2nd place, however, it is very easy for us to blame the wide draw for its defeat...correctly or incorrectly.

"A system with a rule of must be in barrier 1-7 or the outside barrier might have some worth. I like it."

Food for thought there Crash..or maybe ..any barrier draw , providing that it is isnt 2

Ive noticed lately that the 2nd barrier draw in from the outside has been going ok lately..there have been a few races where the two outside barrier horses have fought out the finish and grabbed 1st and 2nd...

for your system CRash, your own existing barrier rule seems to work, if your results are anything to go by, so I can imagine your reluctance to tweak it.

Would be awesome to find out if the omission of the barrier draw rule altogether, (or the inclusion of outside barrier rule) would further improve, either your strike rate, or perhaps more importantly, ..p.o.t.
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