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Old 2nd October 2005, 09:52 AM
Hammers Hammers is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 148
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Xanadu,

I have never been able to grasp the logic of betting less in a "losing streak" and more in a "winning streak". The questions I pose are these ...

1. What is a winning streak? Is it showing higher than average profit over a certain period? Is it backing three winners in a row? You may be "winning" over a period of 100 bets but losing over a period of 25. Similar logic applies to losing runs.

2. How do you know when a losing/winning streak is going to end? Betting less would indicate you expect the losing run to continue and therefore I ask, why bet at all?

3. Why put more on a horse you rate an even money chance simply because you are having a good trot as opposed to a smaller bet on a horse you also rate evens because you are experiencing a losing trot? The only time this logic would apply would be if there were insufficient funds in your punting bank. If that is the case, then the bet size as a whole should be reviewed or your bank increased to accomodate losing runs. To bet less simply because you are down on your luck smacks of gimmicky punting, not professional.

I operate two banks for two different bet types I have. One is high strike rate, the other low but with excellent average win prices. I bet 1% of my bank on Bank A where my strike rate is around 29% and 0.5% on Bank B where my strike rate is 19%. At the end of each month I take profits and start again with the same bank level thus ensuring the same bet percentage and size. The bank is sufficiently large to accomodate even the worst expected losing runs and there is never a need to make irrational or emotional decisions. If I started making decisions on the run and adjusting bet size, I would immediately question my approach and stop betting.
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