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Old 5th October 2005, 08:05 AM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Default AN OBVIOUS EQUATION which most punters ignore

My point here is to refute the the belief that most punters here [or anywhere for that matter], punt to win money. The love of the sport and any other reasons are secondary. It's a nonsense. Profit comes last for most punter's reasons for punting. This punter included [I've stated quite a few times here I punt for pleasure].


To make my point I'll use an example and I'm going to keep it very simple.

Theoretical:
Punter "A" had 7 bets today and the odds were: 5/1,4/1,7/1,5/1,4/1,3/1,4/1.
Punter 'B' had 3 bets: 4/1,3/1,6/1
Both punters are exactly equal in their ability to select winners. Punter A likes more action than B though.

We will not get into results for the day here because it will cloud the issue. They might show on any particular day, neither punter winning, both loosing, one winning and the other loosing or both punters winning.

The question here is who got the best odds on the day [meaning the least exposure to loss], and more importantly, which punter will show more profit [or less loss] over the long haul, punter A or B ?

Punter B naturally. Every time, regardless of results for the day. When the odds are against us, the more bets we have, the more exposure to loss there is.

Lets see why:
Punter A's odds for the day were 5+4+7+5+4+3+4/1x7 units bet.
Punter B's odds were 4+3+6/1x3 units bet.

Punter B's odds of losing on the day are naturally less, which also means his profit or loss situation over say a year [or longer] will be much better than A's situation.

The above is the very simple reason why most Pro punters [who bet for profit] have very few bets. Most punters here and elsewhere do the exact opposite.
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