Hey Every Topic,

You have to be careful about assumptions. Favourites do not come in more often than the rest of the field. And even that depends on the class, type, etc. of the race. It can vary from 14% to 51%! On average it's about 33% (http://www.adrianmassey.co.uk).

On the opposite end of that scale, 74% of horses at 1/2 or less come in. So how about a mathematical approach?

In races where the horse is not odds on (around evens or better) and the tipsters can't seem to agree on who is the best you have some tasty uncertainty. Dutch all but the favourite and the long shot with an expected return of 5% of your bank.

Either that or leave the racing form in front of you while drinking coffee. If there are any drips, take that horse. Someone else tried giving his 2-year-old a pen and leaving the paper in front of him. Week 1 = 27% return. Week 2 = 100% loss. Some variability in that approach that is hard to live with. :lol:

-Duck