6th October 2005, 08:04 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,434
|
|
All this hostility for nought.
Crash is kind of right.
The more bets a punter has in a negative expectation game, the greater the chance of loss. One can defy the odds, but not forever.
Conversely, the less bets a punter has in a positive expectation game, the less the chance of a profit.
Although the odds don't change, like a coin flip, the greater the exposure to the game, the more likely the overall % loss or profit will result.
Why does this happen?
Take for example Kenchar, with his "hit-make a profit-run" approach.
There is more to this than simply the odds, there is the confidence factor as well. One is more likely to make a sound decision when having the first bet of the day, than when chasing a deep loss.
The only evidence lies in the number of times a punter was ahead for the day and gave it all back by betting more.
|