6th October 2005, 09:45 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
I had assumed in my original post that all punters here realize that there is no such thing as true odds in racing because to work out true odds all possibilities must be known. A casino has true odds but never in a horse race. So our 5/1 odds are a mixture of true odds and random odds [random chance]. I'd say 1/3rd true odds [represents the fav. SR] and 2/3rds. random chance odds which through good form study Ace can reduce but never eliminate.
Ace, buy reducing the amount of bets he had, reduced his random chance odds against him over the 5yr. period. Does that make sense now or have I completely descended into murk here ? If so, please explain why.
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Crash,
Would you agree that every favorite has the same percentage chance as the one before it?
ie; if the favorite has not got up for 5 races it is no more likely than its every day percentage to get up in the next.
If so then your logic is flawed because you assume that a group of 3 bets has less chance than a group of 7 bets to fall victim to the 2/3rds random chance theory.
In actuality EACH RACE has the same % chance as the one before and after it of falling victim to your random chance theory.
If one isnt talking theoreticly for a moment and i assume that there is a little bit of your punting history in Ace then more than likely the higher rate of success with 3 bets as opposed to 7 can simply be put down to using the same amount of time to study 7 races as you know do for 3 resulting in a better more alert and select handicapping style.
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