6th October 2005, 12:19 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
Hi Dale.
Quote:
"Would you agree that every favorite has the same percentage chance as the one before it?
ie; if the favorite has not got up for 5 races it is no more likely than its every day percentage to get up in the next".
No I certainly wouldn't agree with that. You are talking about an equation that has never belonged on a race track. Random chance odds that are always present in the racing game make that an impossible axiom. Anything is possible. The fav. might win the next and the next and the next.
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So you are saying that a $3 favorite's chance of winning the next is not the same as it was the last $3 favorite.
I am saying it has and i think you agree and as such the important part of my post that you conviently left out
Dale wrote-"If so then your logic is flawed because you assume that a group of 3 bets has less chance than a group of 7 bets to fall victim to the 2/3rds random chance theory.
In actuality EACH RACE has the same % chance as the one before and after it of falling victim to your random chance theory."
proves your theory WRONG.
P.S. if you come back at me with another post designed to create confusion dont expect a reply.
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