Hi guys


Don't you just love October. Weather impoves, baseball all day every day, the hockey starts and NFL hits full gear. Went 2-0 here to improbe to 5-7 but I must say I was lucky with SF doing everything in its power to make Arizona look good to get the over and GB gettng the back door cover as Carolina went into sleep mode. Alls well that ends well.

The Fox game is Tampa Bay v NY Jets at 3 am.

After last week you might wonder if some teams like Buffalo, the Jets, Jax, GB, SF and Houston should bother showing up. But they are all returning home and as we know bad looking teams returning home suddenly look like world beaters. The lines are all reflecting this with 11 of 14 being on a field goal to seperate them.

Thanks for the stats Saratoga. Total Points in the NFL usually average around 42.5 and they are down to 40 this year.

My picks are

Carolina v Arizona under 43.5. Arizona showed us last week that they still can't score td's even if they are given the ball for the whole game. Facing a much tougher defense here in Carolina I don't expect them to get too many 7 pointers again. Carolina also doesn't have a great offense and the stats show that Arizona defense is about the same as Carolina's. Two poor offenses against 2 average to good defenses looks like field goals will be the order of the day which should lead to a score about 4-6 points beneath the line.

Jacksonville -2.5 bt Cinci. The Bengals are +15 on the t/o table and have beaten teams that are a combined 3-11. Recieving all the breaks and only beating poor teams makes the Bengals look pretty good. The JAX are 2-2 and have played much harder opposition (10-6 combined). Cinci have been getting it done through the air and I expect that to stop on Sunday as the Jaguars are #2 in pass defense on my stats. Time for Cinci to be unlucky with the turnovers and facing a real good defense leads me to think the Jag's will win a low scoring contest by 3 or 6.

Seattle +3 bt STL. Seattle are my #1 offensive team and playing a poor defensive team in the Rams. The Seahawks should be able to run well and then set up the long passes. Stl passes ok but their rushing is poor. Seattle has a good pass defense and should hold St Loius at bay. It could be a high scoring game but I think Seattle has too many guns for the Rams.

Good luck to you all