View Single Post
  #7  
Old 21st January 2003, 03:29 PM
becareful becareful is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
Default

Getting back to the original point as to is there any way to use this information as per the Dr Z. approach?

I actually did some research on this some time ago and came to the conclusion that the opportunites in Australia were quite limited. Firstly the system developed by Dr Z uses the US tote system which pays on Win, Place and Show where we only have Win and Place (with Place equivalent to the US Show). From the analysis I did it seems that our place pools are more in line with the win pool than seems to be implied by the Dr Z stuff I read as there seemed to be relatively few opportunites where the place dividend was enough of an "over" to overcome the TAB take. The other big problem (and this was the real killer as far as I was concerned) was that the place dividends can change significantly from just before the jump when you would have to place the bet to when the final div is declared. If you are betting on say a 10% calculated overlay but then the price drops by 15% after the jump then you have just gone from an overlay to an underlay.

Of course there is no doubt that there are opportunities where the place divs are definitely out of whack - eg. there was a trots race last year where the winner paid $1.30 for win and $1.50 place - the question is can you find them often enough to avoid dying of boredom while you wait?
__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson
Reply With Quote