G'day Mav,
Should be a cracking days racing tomorrow, looking forward to it. Not too bad in Brissy, bigger fields should ensure a bit more value.
Race 1 - Bit of pace here on paper, and the 1600m races are usually run at a good clip. For that reason, i like Caprill. Always seems to run well when she comes to town and from the good draw, i expect a decent run at odds. Cut a Caper is dropping in class here, after being backed a big odds last time and could run a race. Gold Victory isn't hopeless either, with a bit of speed on up front.
Race 2 - Don't know, and won't be betting. The ones to watch might be Plachutta, Simply Fantastic and Valconic. But as Mav said, go with the money if you really want a bet.
Race 3 - Nova Star does look to be a good chance here after the good 1st up run. Will get a great run with J Byrne riding and hopefully she's not too short. Rashini is a good fresh horse, and the inside alley will be a help....Colless is in hot form too. Craiglea Cowboy isn't hopeless at odds, will be on pace and could take a lot of catching.
Race 4 - Nothing wrong with Cold Start's form, and still gets in with no weight after the claim. Can sit right on the pace, and will take some catching. Shady Brady has some admirers last start and was disappointing, could bounce back tomorrow if things go his way. Classic Karla is as consistent as they come, and will be there at the business end for sure. The 1800m start is a nightmare for the outside alleys though...
Race 5 - Tackman should get home here i think, if he repeats his last runs. Won't get any flash odds, but the alley and the claim ensure a decent run (i hope). Wheel the Lead has no weight and has been crying out for a staying trip lately and gets it here. He's Tackman's biggest danger. Delicata with the claim has a rough lightweight hope here too, getting up to a staying journey.
Race 6 - Good race. A lot of pace here, which is why i think Undenied can go close. He'll settle back a little, but with the pressure on he can sprint home hard (as he has been doing up north). It's a class jump to be sure, but i think he'll be better value than a couple of the others. Messiaen has been in super form and has shown he can handle big weights. Minassi is a good young horse with a good chance from the inside with Byrne too. Lot of chances outside of these though.
Race 7 - Free As Air can go close here i think, with plenty of speed on up front. The 1200m, the Eagle Farm straight and the claim with all ensure that he gets a good run and a chance to run some of these leaders down at the death. Allegro Spiritoso was a little disappointing on face value last time, but she is definately capable of winning this. Naval Seal is a good horse, the 1200m is a query though, i'm not sure he'll be suited.
Race 8 - King of Spin is ready to win after the first up 4th at the mid-weeks. This isn't a strong race, so i think he'll go very close from the good alley. Noble Gaze is a tough horse to pick, but if everything goes his way hes a chance. River Hunter was a good run last time in vastly superior grade and if he handles the weight OK, then he goes close to winning...won't get any flash odds though, i'd imagine.
Best tomorrow would be Nova Star and King of Spin, with good rough chances to Caprill and Free As Air. Will be cheering hard for Lachlan River in the cup too
Good luck all
Sven