Yes Paddy, now that I think about it there are quite a few desparates in Newcastle.
Xanadu, you seem to operate from the other end of the spectrum to me. I find it difficult to bet race by race on Saturdays but when I do I usually rate my top 5 backing any of my top 2 if showing $15 + and any of the next 3 if they are showing $25 +.
I bet win only as I've researched many place methods and found their returns to be very meagre if a profit is achieved at all.
I am trying to identify races that tend to throw up long priced horses, thus allowing one to back a number of horses and still achieve a profit should the winner be struck.
Group races with 15+ starters fall into this category. I've made a cut off point of top 9 win only and top 6 into field in quinellas in a number of these. Some outstanding results have included Sapio ($150 +) when it won the Doomben Cup (rated 3rd), Ambala ($169) when it won the Goodwood and Bulta ($100 +) when it won the SA Derby (rated 8th).
The tips I put up on this posting made a long term profit of 18% on turnover over a 7000 race workout (of which 2000 proved to be bettable races). The top horse using this method made 26% on t.o. but the strike rate was not good (18%). Due to time restrictions this is what currently suits me (i.e. put on when scratchings are known and forget about them). The race by race scenario is probably more profitable but I don't seem to have the right temperament for it. After a losing day (because it is work rather than play) I tend to think,'************ hell! I've spent all of my precious Saturday watching a screen!' etc, etc
Wellington Cup tomorrow will probably be a top 9 and 6/field quinella race. Although it's not in my workout it fits the general characteristics of the type of race researched. Will be fickle and have a go at it I think.
Anyway, good to hear from you. We Novocastrians have to stick together against the forces of evil out there.
Better keep moving. It's something you have to do when you owe a lot of money around the town.