
19th October 2005, 04:54 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 39
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Thanks
Thanks very much for the input fellows.
I really should exclude 8 runners or less even though this cuts out all dogs which, surprisingly, provides a lot of good returns AND too many bad ones I suppose. I am not trying to anticipate the market so much as take what ever it happens to be and go with the most under-bet pairs. I simply take the top eight in the betting and divide the product of their win odds into their current quinella odds. I sort them by this number (decreasing) and dutch them. If this offers a certain overall return I post the bets.
This obviates the need to look at individual odds, though I do exclude races where the favourite is less than half of the second favourite. Though maybe I should look at this issue more closely Michael.
Typically this "fiddle-factor" (Quin odds/Win1 odds/ Win2 odds) is between 0.4 and 0.8. Would any of you guys have the means to knock out any useful stats on this? Sadly the details of all but the place-getters are no longer available post-race. But is there any value in looking at, say, the average fiddle-factor of past races by race type, or field size, etc.?
KV, following on from your moderator issue: I wonder how they would deal with the English soccer club ****nal..... or even S****horpe Utd ;-)
Good heavens..... sanitised!
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