Gday All
I doubt there is a bigger Makybe Diva fan than me... but I am not going to back her in the Plate...
There said it
As has been metioned in this thread she is mighty short, too short for my liking. When I rated the race she could only come in 6th, mind you that is a fairly compressed rating spread tho. I have Xcellent on top with no real confidence. Why shouldnt I be confident about this bloke? his form says he wins.. But it is kiwi form, and we know that these days it does'nt always stack up.. I look back over his last 5 starts.. 4 G1 wins out of 5, but the big query is that all the G 1's are kiwi G 1's, he came over here and failed miserably at G1 Level in last year's AJC Derby beaten 10 lengths.. that is why I am not confident..
Lad of the Manor and Lotteria share the next line. Obviously Lotteria is the big over In my opinion, her form has been solid including a close up 3rd in the Epsom and a nice, but close, win in the Gr 2 Shannon. Lad of the Manor has been impressive winning 2 out of his last 3 starts at Gr 2 level and placing in the Turnbull, his last run at G1 level was a 4/7, beaten 4.5 in the Aust Cup earlier in the year.. so maybe class could be a worry.
These 2 are followed by God's Own, who couldnt help but be impressed by THAT win,(there was also a fantastic run in that race from Primus.. get on next time)... His rise to G 1 level is nothing short of astounding, but the dampener for me is there is NO G Boss steering this time and is untried at the distance... and to round out the top 5 is Confectioner... I dont have a real wrap for this bloke but the numbers speak for themselves.. he has performed adequately at G 1 level, has seen the track, and is yet to be out of the money( 1/1/3) after 5 goes at the distance
Makybe Diva's last G1 was in Japan where she finished midfield.. but as we know that race has proven to be a resonable form race.. She has contested 3 Gr 2 for 2 wins and a placing in her last 3 starts.. I fear the track may well beat her here.. They run this race at Flemington.. she just wins
So with no confidence that is my opinion of the Cox.. Xcellent has the superior G 1 form of late.. and deserves to be looked at very closely
Below are my full field ratings for the big race
Good Luck if you choose to have a bet
8 XCELLENT 34
2 LAD OF THE MANOR 32
12 LOTTERIA 32
13 GOD'S OWN 30
4 CONFECTIONER 28
10 MAKYBE DIVA 27
14 HOTEL GRAND 26
5 DESERT WAR 24
1 GREYS INN 24
6 FIELDS OF OMAGH 23
11 SKY CUDDLE 22
9 OUTBACK PRINCE 21
3 SUPER KID 15
7 TOSEN DANDY 11