Diva just needs the perfect sit and a clear run for the short straight and the story is over. That said, getting the perfect sit and a clear run tends to be the hard part of a race. Thats up to the jockey. They say discounting her would be punting suicide. They said that about El Sig as well. I think this time however, they are probably right.

Xcellent, well everything about his form says winner. Except of course unless you add some water. Too many other horses with decent wet track form here. Sure, it was only one start in the wet, but 10 lengths doesnt bode well. Also, as XPT has already pointed out, NZ form in Australia doesnt a champion make.

Lad will make a very bold showing. But he is giving too much to the Diva. This isnt one of his better distances, and the most he really has going for him is a perfect record at this track. But as with the diva, leaving him out is bad Mojo..

As for who is going to win. I think for once, thats a good question. With other races, its never been so hard. Sure, my pick may not have been the winner, but at least I could actually pick one before. Thinking I might sit the plate out this year and concentrate one whats happening in sydney..

Besides, if what I expect to happen in the first in sydney does happen, I doubt that I will still be coherant come the Cox Plate.