G'day Merriguy,

Yesterday, there were only moderate betting opportunities available at Taree and Hamilton. However, Race 2 at Taree appeared to offer a potential good percentage return.
There were only four starters so I had a box trifecta(outlay 4x3x2 =24 units)- let's face it, I had to get the trifecta( I didn't bet the 1st four as I believed there was more opportunity in the trifecta to get value).
I suppose I gambled here that a longshot may get up and pay a decent div. and fortunately the outsider of the field did salute. This was a classic percentage bet as I invested 24units and it paid $44.60 in NSW, representing a POT of 85.83%, not bad at all.
Is the pattern of racing changing or are favs in small fields getting knocked over with alarming regularity. Ten or twenty years ago, favs had an incredible winning percentage in small fields but not now-but there I go again, thinking conspiracy theories. My research shows that it can be profitable to bet against the fav in small fields with a view to scoring a better paying trifecta or exacta(I stress, in certain races only). This does not contradict my previous post about betting for the place in small fields as I do not necessarily wager on favs in races I select.
While I have been punting OK for some time, everything does not always go to plan. A case in point was Race 8 at Murray Bridge on 27.1.03. Prophet's Dream had been racing respectfully in Class 5 races and here it dropped back to a maiden race. As the class factor is one of my most important selection criteria I believed this represented an excellent betting opportunity.
The horse travelled well, the jockey pulled him out in the straight for a clear run but he wasn't good enough and ran unplaced. I went in pretty hard on this one so it was a bit painful but I am researching what went wrong but that's racing I suppose.
The important thing is flexibility and I change my punting methods to suit the conditions on the day and what opportunities present themselves.
That's why I don't necessarily bet win/place every day - I bet in whatever method provides value, ie. exactas , trifectas, dutch book etc
By the way, thanks for that program, it should be very useful for the trial period.

Cheers.