28th October 2005, 09:37 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 9
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Here is my assessment of the Juvenile
For 1st
No11 Private Now - Decently bred by 1st season sire Broken Vow (Unbridled) out of a Deputy Minister mare and was a $180K yearling purchase. Has won 3 from 4 in short career including last start at Group 2 level 9*4.3 lengths. Form reference out of that race does seem strong with Union Course beaten 14 lengths 4th and the start prior was only 7 lengths behind Henny Hughes. This gives Private Now a 2-3 length margin on form over First Samurai the pre-post favorite here. Definitely worth including and could be the boilover horse and shapes as good value on that basis.
For 2nd
No9 First Samurai - Superbly bred by Giant's Causeway out of a Dixieland Band mare and so far has won 4 from 4 in short career. Winner at group 1 level last 2 starts including last start at this track when produced a commanding performance to win 3.7*9.7 lengths defeating Henny Hughes and Superfly. Form through those 2 does make this a very strong contender and hard to stop if it is in the same frame of mind today.
For 3rd
No6 Dawn Of War - Well bred by Cateinus (Storm Cat) out of a Chimes Band mare and is a full brother to former good juvenile Lisa's Cat. Winner 3 of 6 and has finished 2nd at other 3 starts in short career. Last start won at Group 1 level when defeating Catcominatcha and Stream Cat 3.5*3.3 lengths at Keeneland. Form references out of that race do seem strong with Stream Cat a Group 3 winner the start prior. In top form now and holds chances here on that basis.
Best Value Lay
No10 Henny Hughes - Well bred by Hennessy out of a Meadowlake mare and is a half brother to 6 other sprint winners. Won first 3 career starts including a Group 2 at Saratoga before last 2 starts finishing 2nd to the very smart First Samurai both times at Group 1 level. Well placed here but seems to be well below First Samurai on exposed form and should finish behind it again here but capable of getting on the board for 2nd or 3rd.
Final Betting Assessment - This shapes as a good quality betting race value wise and have decided to lean the way of Private Now who has exposed form references suggesting it can defeat the hot pot favorite First Samurai who must be included for 2nd as the exposed class runner in the field. Private Now is 8/1 pre-post and that is good value and is more likely a true 13/4 chance. First Samurai at 8/5 pre-post does seem short and is probably a true 7/2 chance so is under the odds. Dawn Of War makes for good value at 20/1 pre-post as the likely third here. For those interested in laying the value lay in this race shapes as Henny Hughes who is the 5/1 2nd favorite pre-post but could easily finish off the board.
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