Runner Assessments
No1 Makybe Diva - Makybe Diva comes into this years Melbourne Cup as a dual winner after winning the event in 2003 and 2004 and this years seeks to make history by winning it for a 3rd time in a row. This campaign she has been in career best form after last start annexing The Cox Plate at Group 1 WFA over 2040m 10 days ago. She has faced a slightly different preparation this time around to past years and it does seem this year it is not so much an afterthought but secondary to her Cox Plate win but Freedman is confident the horse is doing well enough since her Cox Plate win to be given a crack making it 3 on end. There is no doubting she is of world class standard and will start favorite for this years Cup on the basis of public love of her. Putting all that aside it must be said she does come into the race with a major chance obviously but she will have a few things against her in her quest to win for a 3rd time in a row. Two of those major queries will be her chances at the weights against Eye Popper who ran an absolute blinder in The Caulfield Cup proving he has handled his travel to Australia well. Eye Popper defeated Makybe Diva in The Tenno Sho carrying 1.5kg more and today gets in 4kg below her. In The Tenno Sho Eye Popper rated 6kg better than Makybe Diva and gets into this 4kg below Makybe Diva giving him a 10kg pull over her at the weights for this race. Freedman has publicly stated he feels she was 6 lengths below her best that day which still puts her 1kg below Eye Popper for that run but I am prepared to take the chance that she was actually going OK and was not that far below herself. Look all in all she has her chance here but it is hard to see her making it 3 on end as a mare carrying topweight with that exposed form reference on show and the prospect of a hard track so we are prepared to look for value elsewhere chasing the winner.
No2 Vinnie Roe - Vinnie Roe comes into this event having his 3rd crack for the astute mentor Dermot Weld and last year finished 1.3 lengths 2nd to Makybe Diva and in 2002 finished 3.9 lengths 4th to Media Puzzle. Last year finishing behind Makybe Diva on a rain effected track which suits the horse it rated 0.5kgs in front of Makybe Diva at the weights as it carried 2.5kg more for the defeat. This year it comes in as equal topweight meaning that it is actually rating 0.5kg in front of Makybe Diva for this years race. Another factor we must look at assessing his chances is how well he has been going in Europe this year. He has had 4 starts in Europe this flat season coming into this race and encountered a few niggling problems. This year he failed to annex The Irish St Leger which he has won in 2002 and 2004 when previously coming here as the lead up race for him. He does seem to have rated 3-4 lengths below his 2004 level in that race which presents a question mark. 2 starts earlier in The Gold Cup at York he was beaten 5 lengths by Distinction at level weights and Distinction gets into this 1.5k below Vinnie Roe giving Distinction a 9kg pull on him here at the weights today. The Gold Cup was run on a good to firm track which is not that bad a surface which is a very strong pointer to Distinctions chances here. Vinnie Roe is a grand campaigned but may have his work cut out at the weights here on that basis.
No3 Distinction - Distinction comes here this year having his 2nd shot at The MC after last year finishing 7 lengths 6th to Makybe Diva on a rain effected track. Connections publicly stated last year that they thought he would improve a lot for the effort what ever he did before the race and come back in 2005 a much stronger horse and this has been proven by his flat form in the 2005 European flat season which has included a 0.1l 2nd to Westerner in The Gold Cup (a proven strong form race for this event) where Vinnie Roe finished 5 lengths adrift in 3rd franking the form out of the race. Westerner 2 starts later went on to finish 2nd in The Prix de l'arc de Triomphe beaten 2 lengths by champion European 3yo Hurricane Run further franking the form out of Gold Cup. Distinction is by Danehill out of a Nureyev mare, handles firm ground, is proven over the trip, comes here in top class form, has seen it and done it before and has been set for this race from the outset and on that basis is a major chance. Also interesting to note Kinane takes the mount this year after the Beadman debacle last year.
No4 Greys Inn - Greys Inn comes into this event having its 3rd Australian start after last start finishing 7 lengths 10 of 14 in The Cox Plate. Being by Zabeel out of a Christmas Tree mare Great Verdict he is yet to ever race over 3200m but on breeding one would suggest he will have no problem seeing out the 3200m and has proven by his Dubai and Hong Kong efforts that he is most effective on dry tracks. In The Cox Plate he seemed to lose his place at a vital stage and never recover so I am prepared to dismiss that run. His natural racing style that has seen him produce his best efforts on the International stage so far in Dubai and Hong Kong has seen him come from off the pace so it is likely he will go back here which will definitely suit on this big open track. Greys Inn through his Hong Kong 2nd to Vengeance Of Rain on a form reference through Phoenix Reach rates 1.7 lengths on Mummify at level weights and Mummify rates 2.8 lengths better than Railings on their Caulfield Cup runs at the weights giving Greys Inn a 4.5 lengths pull on Railings and giving it 2.5kgs here still comes out 4.5kgs better than Railings at the weights through that run. Greys Inn on that basis sneaks into this race with some chance.
No5 Franklins Gardens - Franklins Gardens is another of The European raiders. He comes into this after failing in The Irish St Leger last start and before that was beaten 9 lengths by Distinction in The Gold Cup. He is badly weighted for this and on that form should have stayed home. Other form references from earlier in The European flat season still put him 6 lengths below Distinction when he seemed to be at his best. Can't win here.
No6 Eye Popper - Eye Popper was out noted preferred betting option in The Caulfield Cup and has firmed significantly in MC markets after its huge effort that day which saw it race 5 and 6 deep for the entire trip and eventually finish 2nd to Railings beaten a short neck. It was an absolutely huge run to say the least and with any sort of decent ride should have won the race. He comes into this 2nd up and a lot fitter for that effort and will improve immensely on the run and definitely appreciate the step to 3200m. As stated above he comes into this and meets Makybe Diva better off than their Tenno Sho weights and looks to rate 10kg infront of her here for that run. On that basis Eye Popper is in this up to his ears and will be hard to beat given the right ride by Fujita who retains the mount.
No7 Railings - Railings is The Caulfield Cup winner and comes into this off that proven form reference but that day he was gifted with one of the better runs in transit and finished it off like a horse that was totally suited to the 2400m. After copping a penalty for the CC win he now has 54kgs and is not as well weighted as his Caulfield Cup effort. Being by Zabeel he is bred to get the trip and there is every chance he will but for mine I can't get the past the fact it meets Eye Popper worse off at the weights after a softer run in transit and Eye Popper is subject to much more improvement than this one, so yes it is one of the better local chances but will struggle against the best of the internationals and as stated it still comes out 4.5kgs below Greys Inn as well here on a proven Phoenix Reach / Mummify form reference.
No8 Xcellent - I will start by saying totally forget he even went around in The Cox Plate. It was a shocking ride and can be dismissed as any sort of form reference for this. To ascertain the true chance of this horse we must look once again to its New Zealand form knowing that it only has a chance if the track remains on the better side of a dead rating which at the time of writing is likely. We need to look at its last start in New Zealand and through that run it rates equal with Distinctly Secret and in the 2003 MC Distinctly Secret rated 6.5kg below Makybe Diva and on that basis Xcellent rates 2.5kg below Makybe Diva here as it gets 4kgs from it at the weights. Even if Xcellent who on breeding looks as though it may be 1-1.5 lengths better over 3200m than 2400m then it still only rates equal with Makybe Diva and as stated we have already found form references giving others a good pull on the Diva at the weights so Xcellent is an outside place chance but it is hard to see it winning here.
Continued in next post..........