No9 Kindjhal - This is a former European runner bought by Australian connections with this race in mind. It has had time to settle here and 2 starts ago finished 6.3 lengths 4th to Railings in The Metropolitian and then Railings came out and won The CC. It does get a 2.5kg turn around at the weights on Railings for that run and on European form will be better suited to the 3200m but even on that basis it is hard to see it improving the other 4 lengths required to even finish infront of Railings so it is hard to see it winning here on weights and measures.
No10 Hugs Dancer - Hugs Dancer finished 5.6l 5th in this race last year carrying only 3kgs below Makybe Diva. This year it gets into the race carrying 6kg less which means it is 2 lengths better off at the weights than last year. It comes in here in a similar vain of form as last year so it is not likely to improve any further for that effort which still puts it 3.6l behind Makybe Diva this year at the weights no realistically you have to be prepared to dismiss its chance here.
No11 Demerger - Demerger comes into this as the raining Adelaide Cup winner and connections have set it for this race since that day. Last start it finished 4.8 lengths 10th in The Caulfield Cup and did finish the race off nicely at thhe same but it needs to improve significantly again here on that run to threaten. He rates naturally 5kg below Strausbourg on that run through Envoy who finished 3rd in The AC and Strausbourg gets 1kg from him here. Another interesting factor here is a pointer towards Strausbourg's chances when assessing it later. When Makybe Diva and Demerger met (both over an unsuitable 2000m trip at this track) earlier this preparation Makybe Diva beat it by 3.1 lengths rating 6kg better than it and Strausbourg rated 5kg on it through the envoy form reference putting Strausborg only 1kg below Makybe and it gets in here 7.5kg below Makybe Diva giving Strausbourg a 6.5kg pull on Makybe Diva at the weights through that form reference. Definitely worth noting for later on when looking at Strausbourg.
No12 Dizelle - Seemed to improve greatly on Saturday when 4th in the Saab. Before that was totally out of form and not in the reckoning but she is by Zabeel and the Saab run was top class from a MC point of view. She rates 1kg below Strausbourg for the run and gets in here carrying 1kg more than Strausbourg so for mine is still 2kg below Strausbourg for this on exposed form.
No13 Lachlan River - Winner of The Queensland Derby back in June and that is generally considered a sound form reference for future MC chances but this may be one year too early for it. Raced on Saturday in The Mackinnon over 2000m at WFA and produced one of the best Cups trials on the day and looked like it is every bit searching for the 3200m of The MC the way it finished the race off on Saturday. It rated 3kg below Lad Of The Manor on that run and the interesting this is that Lad Of The Manor only rated 3.5kg below Makybe Diva when Makybe Diva won The Cox Plate. Lachlan River finished The Mackinnon off like it was looking for 3200m so I am prepared to say it can improve 2-3 lengths on that run, let say 3.5kg to be conservative which puts it only 3kg below Makybe Diva through the Cox Plate effort and Lachlan River gets into this carrying 6.5kg below Makybe Diva and therefore in my books is capable of rating 3.5kg better than Makybe Diva at the weights in The Melbourne Cup. On that basis it is a huge chance if it can reproduce the Mackinnon effort from Saturday.
No14 Portland Singa - Portland Singa comes into this as the winner of The Brisbane Cup this year over the winter carnival and is in the astute hands of Neville McBurney who produces good stayers who peak on the day. She ran 4.4 lengths 8th in The Caulfield Cup and on that effort really does have to be considered as out of her depth here even with improvement over the 3200m.
No15 Vouvray - Has been out of form this preperation and finished 6.4 lengths 9th in The Mackinnon on Saturday and it is hard to see it improving enough on that run to figure here. Also did nothing the start prior in The CC. Merely making up the numbers here.
No16 On A Jeune - Raced in this event last year and finished 9.9 lengths 11. Won the Geelong Cup last start as a lead in here but on that effort through Men At Work rates 6.5kg below Railings naturally and only gets 3kg from it here. Railings has also improved considerably since The Metropolitian win that form reference is taken off so prepared to dismiss On A Jeune's chances here.
No17 Umbula - 2 starts ago was 5.6l 5th to Leica A Falcon with Hugs Dancer in 3rd. Last start produced an improved effort to win at Moonee Valley over 2500m in a Group 2 but form references through Kindjhal 3rd that day suggest the run was well short of anything produced by Railings so very hard to have it here on exposed form.
No18 Bazelle - Last start was 0.1 lengths 2nd to Umbula 2500m M Valley Group 2. As stated above form references out of that race do not look strong enough for this and will struggle here. Benifits on the breeding side of the equation being by Zabeel and should have no problem seeing out the 3200m of The MC but not strong enough to win this edition.
No19 Envoy - Comes into this merely making up the numbers after 3 starts ago being beaten by Xcellent in New Zealand, 2 back was beaten by On A Jeune at Geelong and last start was down the track behind Strausbourg. No reason to see it improving here to any level to make it any sort of hope in this.
No20 Rizon - Well bred by Zabeel and annexed The Winning Edge Presentation stakes at Caulfield last year over Grey Song and Zazzman before finishing 2nd in the M Valley Gold Cup behind Another Warrior. Was spelled then and didn't run in The MC last year. Has taken a different path through the spring this year and has been well below his best so far. Last 3 have seen him be beaten by Strausbourg, On A Jeune and Leica Falcon consistently enough to suggest he will need to improve considerably to have any chance of figuring here.
Continued in next post........