31st October 2005, 07:31 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 9
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Part 3
No21 Strausbourg - Hadn't won for close to 3 years before Saturday when it annexed the Saab Quality in fine style. Some will call it a weak form race but there is certain form references today which can not be ignored that suggest different. You can straight off see a couple of different form references through the likes of Rizon and Confectioner that put Strausbourg in this with a big chance. At the weights it can be said he is between 6.5-7kgs infront of Makybe Diva on the Saab win if it can reproduce that effort on Tuesday. Also has the polish of Bart Cummings and he has a knack of getting one or two home on the first Tuesday in November!
No22 Leica Falcon - Leica Falcon comes into this after producing a huge CC run when 1.4 lengths 5th to Railings that day and people have been spooking it as the best Melbourne Cup trial to come out of the race since and they aren't far off being right except people do not really understand the merit associated to Eye Poppers run and only very experienced video analysts will. Sure, Leica Falcon's CC run was enormous but he was suited by the pace, struck some trouble and admittedly did reel off sensational last 600 sectionals was entitled to under the scope of things. One thing is certain that it has been weighted to win this and with 50kgs actually comes into this rating approximately 9kgs better than Makybe Diva at the weights here through a couple of different form references, namely Rizon for one.
No23 Mr Celebrity - Before The Saab Quality on Saturday people were talking of him as being a major chance in The Melbourne Cup and a lot of people would have walked away after Saturday disappointed with the effort in only finishing 3rd to Strausbourg. For mine it was a very encouraging MC trial as he was not touched in the closing stages and finished off like a real stayer now looking for 3200m. It is my thought that he was sent around on Saturday with the view to simply give him a good look a Flemington with connections hopeful that if he didn't win he would still be higher enough in the order of entry to gain a start in The MC which he has after a few other dropped out. To only be beaten 1.5 lengths when carrying 3kgs more than Strausbourg he rated a true 1kg better than Strausbourg and now hew comes in here carrying 1kg less than Strausbourg which gives him a 2kg advantage at the weights on Strausbourg and we have already assessed that Strausbourg get in 6.5-7kgs better at the weights than Makybe Diva and this puts Mr Celebrity approx 9kgs in front of Makybe Diva at the weights on that form reference for this race and therefore on a par with Leica Falcon.
No24 Kamsky - Another Bart Cummings runner and he comes into this race after finishing 4.4 lengths 6th to Strausbourg last start and the thing to note is that he did make up good ground in the last 600m clocking the best last 600m sectional in what shaped as a sit and sprint affair so their was good merit in the run and it suggested he is yelling out for 3200m which he gets here. He is bred to get the 3200m being by Generous who is a son of noted distance producer Caerleon. He gets in with only 48.5kgs so he is very well weighted and could sneak a place as he did finish off well over the 2500m in The Saab and drops 2kg against Strausbourg and was making up good ground on him in the stretch.
Continued in next post.......
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