Final Assessment and Predicted Finishing Order and Assessed Odds of Top 8
The first thing I am going to state here is that there is 6 horses with a chance of winning this years edition of the Melbourne Cup and a lot of it will come down to which horse gets the best run in transit as on form analysis and at the weights there is 2-3 lengths between the top 6 chances here. I honestly believe the Japanese raider Eye Popper is the one to beat here and on his Caulfield Cup form has proven that his Japanese finish in front of Makybe Diva in The Tenno Sho was no fluke. The run he produced in The Caulfield Cup was absolutely enormous and on that basis I have decided to make him the top pick here. It is very hard to split the next 3 so in the end I have decided to lean towards Mr Celebrity for 2nd and he rates basically equal with the 3rd and 4th picks on form but despite the wide barrier has the ability go forward early without too much pressure and get across and go to sleep with one of the runs of the race under a slow tempo and this will suit it down to the ground. For 3rd I have decided to include Leica Falcon who shapes as a big winning chance, the query is that he will get back and have to come with one long run and sustain it against a slow tempo which may not suit but at the weights he is still right in this and will run a huge race. The big query runner is Greys Inn the South African visitor who is by Zabeel and having its 3rd start here and this race will suit it down to the ground under the conditions so it has to be included for 4th. Strausbourg also has claims and could easily pull of an upset for Bart Cummings but it is more likely it is a big place chance and has to be considered for 5th best. One thing is that it will be totally suited by the pace scenario as it will get up on pace under a slow tempo. Somewhat a forgotten runner is the European raider Distinction and it could easily win this race especially if it repeats its Gold Cup run when it finished 2nd to Westerner who then went on to finish a close 2nd in The Arc this year, Distinction is a much superior horse to the one we saw here last year. Before Saturday I would not have ever considered the next horse a chance but Kamsky was impressive in The Saab and it shapes as though it is screaming out for this trip and has every chance of sneaking into a place, especially with the 48.5kg impost it has to carry. The other runner capable of figuring here is Lachlan River who put in a very good trial when 3rd in The Mackinnon on Saturday and looked like a great MC trial.
Eye Popper 11/2 = 15.38% of market
Mr Celebrity 13/2 = 13.33% of market
Leica Falcon 15/2 = 11.76% of market
Greys Inn 9/1 = 10.00% of market
Strausbourg 12/1 = 7.69% of market
Distinction 12/1 = 7.69% of market
Kamsky 20/1 = 4.76% of market
Lachlan River 20/1 = 4.76% of market
Represents a total of 75.37% of the market.
Win Betting - For those interested in win betting there is going to be great value here no matter which way you look at it for the simple fact Makybe Diva is going to start a relatively short priced favorite and she can't win. Realistically the value around Eye Popper was in The Caulfield Cup when we quoted here as being the best value bet and to get on him for the place when 40/1 to 50/1 was being bet for the win. Still all in all it is slightly above the odds here and with it being 7/1 fixed with IAS you can still get value. Mr Celebrity is big value and at 15.00 fixed is good value but is much more likely to start longer on The TAB. Leica Falcon is slightly under the odds on both the TAB and with bookmakers. For mine if I was inclined to win bet in this race I would be backing both Eye Popper, Mr Celebrity and Greys Inn on a 5/3/2 ratio and hoping that Leica Falcon does not figure. This is where the value lies. So if you were outlaying $100 you would have $50 on Eye Popper to win, $30 on Mr Celebrity to win and $20 on Greys Inn to win. But as we have said there is 6 real live chances in the race so win betting for mine is not a preferred option here.
Place Betting - For those looking to simply have a win or place bet on this race this is the way you want to be going as is so often the case in these big field races with so much mug money on the table a place betting provides very good value. I am going to suggest you concentrate on 2 of our top 4 picks here for the place and back them both as they are such good value. The 2 horses in question are Mr Celebrity and Greys Inn. I would suggest backing these two to place under a 3/2 ratio so if you are going to outlay $100 have $60 to place on Mr Celebrity and $40 to place on Greys Inn. I am very confident one of these two will finish on the top 3 and with the place dividends on these runners likely to be around $7.00 for Mr Celebrity and $12.00 for Greys Inn you could walk away either with $420 if Mr Celebrity runs a place or with $480 if Greys Inn runs a place and if they both happen to place you will walk away with around $900 which is a bonus. This is the scenario we think is the best option for those needing to win and place bet.
Trifecta Betting - THIS IS WHERE THE BIG VALUE LIES IN THIS RACE. As stated previously I seriously believe Makybe Diva can not win this race and I also feel that Vinnie Roe one of the other popular elects can not win and I also believe Railings one of the other popular elects can not win or place in this race so that just creates huge value around the trifecta as so many people will include 1 or 2 of these in their trifecta and cut themselves out of the picture. My suggestion is to concentrate on the trifecta as it is always easier to get. Include the top 6 runners I have included for 1st as I stated earlier there is 6 horses who could seriously win this race so there is no point only including 4 of them and getting beaten by one of the other 2. Include the top 8 horses for 2nd and 3rd. This means you will have 6 for 1st, 8 for 2nd and 8 for 3rd and under this scenario it is a total of 252 combinations which means a half unit bet will cost you $126 and a full unit bet will cost you $252.
Lay Betting - Plain and simple the value lay here is Makybe Diva, lay her with confidence. You can even lay her in the place market with confidence!!!
Good luck and happy punting on the day!!!!!