1st November 2005, 02:28 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Mt Tamborine
Posts: 574
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SeeDee
Typically this "fiddle-factor" (Quin odds/Win1 odds/ Win2 odds) is between 0.4 and 0.8. Would any of you guys have the means to knock out any useful stats on this? Sadly the details of all but the place-getters are no longer available post-race. But is there any value in looking at, say, the average fiddle-factor of past races by race type, or field size, etc.?
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Hi SeeDee,
I've fiddled with the fiddle factor on races since feb 04 with the following results:
0 to 8 Horses ----- 0.4464
9 - 12 Horses ----- 0.4592
13 + Horses ------ 0.4704.
Not much difference there.
I also found the average fiddle factor for different quinella prices and they are as follows.
Quinella 0 to $6, Avg fiddle factor 0.4207
6 - 12-------0.5001
12 - 25--------0.5026
25 - 50--------0.5079
50 - 100-------0.4914
100-200-------0.4591
200+ ---------0.4041
There is a regular sort of curve formed by the results with quinellas in the midrange having a higher fiddle factor. To me that means the short priced horses and the long priced horses are overbet in quinellas compared to the mid-priced ones.
Interesting even if it's not useful. :-)
Heavyweight,
Belated thanks for those trifecta formulae.
KV
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