GettingItRight,

You have missed one very important thing from your analysis - how many bets does each system have a week/day/month. You are quite right that if POT is the same then the system with the higher strike rate will give better dollar returns per X number of bets (assuming you make the logical adjustment to your bet size as you have done). But if the high strike rate system only gives you 10 bets per year but the low strike rate system gives you 10 a day then your 200 bets will take you 20 years with the high strike rate system but only 20 days with the low strike rate (an extreme example).

In my experience if you have 2 systems with a similar POT then the high strike rate system will almost certainly have a lower number of bets than the low strike rate system. It's just one of those things - you can't have high SR, high POT and high number of bets (or if you do your a millionaire and you're not wasting your time reading this!) :smile:

Your dollar profit is always determined by the POT multiplied by the bet value per period. The bet value is itself determined by the size of the bet (which, as you pointed out, should be a related to your strike rate and size of bank) and the number of bets.

Personally I prefer a system with a moderate POT but a reasonable number of bets each week to one with a high POT but only 1 bet a week - but other people disagree which is fine. As ET said you can keep refining a system till you only have 1 bet a month that is almost guaranteed to win - but where's the fun in that? :smile:

As to whether strike rate matters - I don't really think so as long as your POT is reasonable and you have enough action to ensure a decent number of winners. For example if you have a strike rate of 75% but only 4 bets/week then you will expect 3 winners/week. If your strike rate is 10% but you have 100 bets/week then you will expect 10 winners/week. Your 100 bets will all be much smaller than the 4 bets in the other system but if the profit is the same, or better, does it matter?

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-04 12:27 ]