4th November 2005, 10:31 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 479
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dale
(1) I bet if we pulled 20,000 mug punters out of the tab and asked them to form a market on each and every race and then combined and averaged their markets they would be completly outperformed by this so called "office boy".
Majorities are good for things like elections but if one wants to increase their POT they need an angle that takes advantage when the majority get it wrong.
(2)Yes they are really ratings but as they have been turned into prices they have every right to be called ummmm prices.............
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The starting price is the combined opinion of everybody that has laid a bet on that race.
If you were to take the favourite of every race and back it, you would return ~90% of your money back over time. Now when you consider the tab have a takeout of 14.5%, then in a 100% market, favourites would return about 104%.
This to me is the best form of ratings available. Actual start prices versus projected prices wins hands down.
Computer ratings don't take everything into account. They simply don't know. Do they know how well the horse trained, or how the horses diet is, or that it is getting set for a big race in 2 weeks time? I can guarantee it doesn't know how the horse looks on race day.
The question is who does know this? The punter. The money.
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