Hi,

For what its worth my 2 cents worth. I am always looking for the longshots. I have over the years developed my own formula. I always look at distance, speed and weight first. Looking to see how fast the horse can race over that distance carrying what weight. I then take into consideration such things as barrier and track conditions. I totally disregard class which I think can be misleading - look at Leica Falcon. I also find out what the track record is for that distance and compare the horse to that.

For the Melbourne Cup I look for horses that have a record of running under 3.20 on a good or better track. The race record is 3.16 all the best horses should be capable of running under 3.20. This year my 3200m horses were Makybe Diva and Eye Popper. For the horses that have not run at 3200m I usually look at the record of those that have raced at 2800 or over next and then disregard the rest. This year there was a whole swag that had not gone near 2800m but only 2400m so I looked at their form which brought up On A Juene and Lachlan River. I then monitor the weather and reframe my selections if the track conditions deteriorate.

Another favourite of mine is to apply the criteria to horses coming from the country to the city. Also, I look at the lead up races to the Spring Carnival when all the good horses are resuming.

regards

Sisterfifi